TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds show divide between betting public and sportsbooks

A divide exists between the betting public and TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centertop oddsmakers less than five weeks before the heavyweight fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul.

Tyson, 58, remains the underdog – largely because he’s three decades older than Paul, 27. Yet more money has been wagered on Tyson than Paul at prominent sportsbooks like DraftKings, Caesars and the Westgate SuperBook.

Of the overall amount of money wagered, bets on Tyson represent 67 percent of the handle at DraftKings, 66 percent of the handle at Westgate SuperBook and the vast majority at Caesars, according to the sportsbooks.

The sportsbooks declined to say how much money has been bet.

“I think when you get guys who are super popular, they're always going to generate the most wagers,’’ Brandon Yaeger, lead sports combat oddsmaker at Caesars, told USA TODAY Sports. “And then coming from a Jake Paul standpoint, it's like the guy everybody loves to see lose. So I think you're just putting your money there hoping to see him lose and cash out.’’

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sportsbook operations at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, pointed to Paul's odds as a factor. They are as low as -330 on the moneyline, meaning a winning bet of $300 on Paul would yield a profit of $100.

"Recreational players don't like to lay -300,'' Kornegay said by text message.

By contrast, Tyson's odds are as high as +275, meaning a winning bet of $100 would yield a profit of $275.

“There's a lot stacked up against Mike Tyson, but I think the recreational bets aren't going to care,'' Gianni Karalis, an experienced sports bettor who specializes in combat sports said. "I think you have the perfect storm for a lot of betting action on the underdog.’’

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Yaeger said he’d be comfortable if the sportsbook took in more money on Tyson and needed Paul to win to keep from losing money.

“Mike Tyson's very good at selling the fight,’’ he said. “He puts just enough out there to make you believe he has the ability to do it.’’

Ability that Yaeger suggests he doubts Tyson has.

Is the 'sharp' money coming?

Sportsbooks have imposed undisclosed limits on early betting for the Tyson-Paul fight that Karalis said are as low as $250, blocking sizable bets from the so-called “sharp’’ bettors. The limits used to reduce liability for the sportsbooks.

“We typically start opening up the limits two weeks prior to the fight,’’ Caesars’ Yaeger said. “That way people could start getting more down. I'd say between two to three days before the fight is really when we get generous and typically whatever people want to get down on the fight they can.’’

With that typically happening at most sportsbooks, experienced sports bettor Teddy Sevransky said he thinks the betting trends will change.

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“Lines aren't set to beat the casual bettor,’’ he said. “They're set to beat the wise guys. The wise guys are the only ones who are going to actually hurt the books.

“So when you're talking about is that public Tyson support going to carry over to the bigger bets that get made before the fight starts is in? I wouldn't count on it.’’

Yet Sevransky also raised questions about how much “sharp’’ money will be wagered. He said he won’t be betting on the fight.

“I think there's an enormous amount of uncertainty,’’ he said. “I don't know if Jake Paul can beat anyone. I don’t know if Mike Tyson has anything at 58 years old. When you do this every day, when you do this for a living, there's lots and lots of events that you handicap and say, ‘Yeah, I got no edge, I'll move on to another.’’

Crunching the gambling numbers

As clunky as it sounds, the “implied win probability’’ is a helpful way to understand the odds for the fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul.

Based odds posted at top sportsbooks, a consensus of oddsmakers think there’s about 75 percent chance of Paul winning the fight – or a 75 percent chance of bets on Paul paying off.

That figure is calculated based on the moneyline odds, set based on each side's chances of winning a contest. As of Monday, odds for Paul ranged from -275 to -330 and Tyson's odds ranged from +210 to +275.

By traditional odds, Tyson is about a 2-to-1 underdog and Paul is about a 1-to-3 favorite.

Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds

• FanDuel: Paul -330, Tyson +250
• BetMGM: Paul -275, Tyson +275
• DraftKings: Paul -275, Tyson +210
• Caesars: Paul -300, Tyson +215